Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

With all of the coverage this week on sports television, newspapers, magazines, and online publications I have noticed that this is probably the first time I have ever seen the number one seed, a team who has a quarterback that is 16-1 at home in his last 17 (the one loss being by three points to the defending champs), actually seem like the underdog. Oh by the way, these two teams also met earlier in the year and the Falcons won that match up.

It really is odd to see, but the consensus seems to be that the Packers will go into Atlanta and be leaving with plans that will either lead them to Seattle or Chicago. Interesting given that Aaron Rodgers won only his first playoff game last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Though when looking at the teams, you can see the aspects of the Packers personnel that leads to the idea that the Packers are almost expected to win. They have a quarterback who became the first in NFL history to record a quarterback rating of over 120 in his first two playoff starts, and who some say is the most skilled in the game today. Then they have a rookie running back in James Starks who had over 100 yards last week and has fresh legs given his injury plagued regular season, to go along with a veteran and highly skilled receiving corps.

The defense has the leading candidate for defensive player of the year in Clay Matthews, as well as last year's award winner in Charles Woodson. The defense as a whole has only given up more than 17 points twice in the last 10 games.

So what are the Falcons to do? Well, I suppose they can just do what they have done all year, and that is go into their home building, with their raucous crowd, and win another football game. The Falcons are somewhat getting treated like the Seahawks, because while they are getting respect for having had a great season, nobody seems to think they can do it in the playoffs. Despite having Matt Ryan, who finished in the top ten in the league in yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. He also led the Falcons to a 5-1 record in games this year decided by five points or less, Matty Ice knows how to win the tight ones.

Then there is Michael Turner, he only finished the season in the top five for running backs in yards, touchdowns, and runs for first downs. Not to mention Roddy White who led the league in receptions, was second only to Brandon Lloyd in yards, and was in the top 10 for touchdowns. This team also boasts one of the most feared pass rushers in the NFC in John Abraham.

This is where it does not make sense, you look at the results, the players, and the intangibles and it is hard to understand why the Falcons are being picked to lose at home by so many. The Falcons keys to winning are simple, control the ball and the clock with Turner on the ground. If Turner is getting the ball 20-25 times then they will be in good shape to win (they were 8-0 in games that Turner ran the ball over 20 times). Get White and Tony Gonzalez going early, the threat of them across the middle and over the top on the outside will open the field up for Turner. Stop James Starks and the run game, because Rodgers is going to get his yards and his points you, but if you make them one dimensional then you have a much greater chance of winning the game.

My prediction: Falcons 27 Packers 21

I think the Falcons are going to be able to take control early, mostly by giving the ball to Turner, who I would not be surprised to see well on his way to over 100 yards by halftime. I also think Matt Ryan will orchestrate at least a couple of second half drives that will eat up the clock and create a rushed sense on the Packers. Rodgers will keep it close, despite the Packers newly found run game getting stuffed for the most part in the first half, and Mike McCarthy deciding to then abandon it in the second half. The lack of balance will put Rodgers in a tough position, and the Falcons defense will rise to the occasion and hold them off, giving Turner and the offense the chance to seal the deal. When all is said and done, though the Packers do have a great shot at winning and could very easily, I think the Falcons will host next week's NFC Championship with a win in what I believe to be the second most intriguing game of the weekend, following the highly anticipated Ravens at Steelers.